Up to 4.69 Million Homes Needed by 2036: Buy Now or Wait in BC?

CMHC's September 2026 update puts Canada's housing need at up to 4.69 million additional homes by 2036, and the words "up to" matter more than the number. They mark the top of a range: the most homes Canada would need to build, beyond what's already expected, to bring housing costs back to a level average households can carry. Back in 2023, CMHC's estimate was 3.5 million extra units by 2030. The goalpost has moved further out in time and grown larger.

If you're planning to buy in British Columbia, here's what that means for you. A gap this size won't close fast enough to give you a clean "now's the moment" signal in either direction. Your decision comes down to something you control: whether your own mortgage file is ready.

A shortage this big changes your timeline more than your price

Canada started 259,028 homes in 2025, a solid year by historical standards. Even so, that pace chips away slowly at a gap counted in millions. BC carries some of the steepest targets in the country, with steady migration and limited buildable land in the Lower Mainland and on Vancouver Island. Multi-unit projects here often take two to three years from permit to keys.

So prices tend to drift instead of leaping. CREA reported the national average sale price up just 0.6% year over year in August 2026, with sales down 0.7% from July. Waiting for new supply to pull prices down means waiting well past 2036. Rushing in before a spike assumes a spike that recent numbers don't show.

Put both choices on the same scale

Here's an illustrative example with round numbers. Take a $668,000 home. If prices rise 0.6% over the next year, matching the August pace, the price goes up about $4,000 ($668,000 × 0.6%).

Now look at what waiting costs you each month. Say you're renting at $2,500 a month. Over that same year, you'd pay $30,000 in rent, with no equity to show for it. Owning has its own costs that don't come back either: mortgage interest, property tax, upkeep. Run those for your own situation, and then compare the difference to roughly $4,200.

In most cases, the price drift is the smallest number on the page. The bigger amounts come from what you'll pay while you wait, and from whether you can qualify at all.

Your paperwork decides who wins

For self-employed buyers, lenders usually look at two years of filed income. If your returns show modest income because you wrote off a lot of expenses, the mortgage you qualify for may be smaller than your actual cash flow could handle. Another year of cleaner tax filing, a lower balance on your credit cards, or a bigger down payment can change that more than any market shift will.

There's an upside to the shortage too. BC's small-scale multi-unit housing rules (Bill 44) let many single-family lots add more homes. A suite or garden cottage can help cover your mortgage. CMHC's Purchase Plus Improvements program lets you borrow up to 10% of the home's value after improvements to fund that work, so the shortage can work in your favour.

The question to ask yourself

Here's the condition that tips the decision. If your income, down payment and credit already support the home you want at a payment you're comfortable with, waiting is unlikely to save you much and will keep costing you rent. If they don't, waiting a year with a clear plan to strengthen your file is the smarter way to buy.

A short review of your file with a mortgage broker will show you which side you're on, and what would move you to the other side.