Canadian Exports to the U.S. Are 71.7% of Total, Not the 85% Figure Still in Circulation
The 85% figure appears in policy briefings, op-eds, and television segments whenever someone explains Canada's dependence on the American market. It continues to circulate in contexts where precision supposedly matters. The figure is wrong by nearly 14 percentage points.
Statistics Canada reports that 71.7% of Canadian exports go to the United States, measured as of December 31, 2025. That is the share of total goods exports by value, calculated from the most recent annual data available. The number comes from the agency's official trade statistics, published in February 2026. Anything higher is outdated, rounded carelessly, or invented.
Where the higher number came from
The 85% figure likely descends from older datasets or from selective readings that exclude certain categories. Some versions count only merchandise trade and drop services. Others pull from provincial summaries where dependency runs higher than the national average. The number also gets repeated in media without a year attached, which lets stale data travel as if it were current. Once a round number enters circulation, it moves faster than a correction.
Why 14 points matter in policy terms
When the gap between perception and reality is that wide, the debate shifts. A country where 85% of exports flow to one customer sounds captive. A country where 72% of exports go to that customer still has significant concentration risk, but the remaining 28% represents approximately $160 billion in annual trade with Europe, Asia, and other markets. That is enough scale to negotiate from. Overstating the dependency by nearly a fifth makes diversification sound impossible when it is merely difficult.
The verified figure is 71.7%. The source is Statistics Canada, updated through the end of 2025. If a number higher than that appears in something you are reading, the writer did not check.
The 85% figure appears in policy briefings, op-eds, and television segments whenever someone explains Canada's dependence on the American market. It continues to circulate in contexts where precision supposedly matters. The figure is wrong by nearly 14 percentage points.
Statistics Canada reports that 71.7% of Canadian exports go to the United States, measured as of December 31, 2025. That is the share of total goods exports by value, calculated from the most recent annual data available. The number comes from the agency's official trade statistics, published in February 2026. Anything higher is outdated, rounded carelessly, or invented.
Where the higher number came from
The 85% figure likely descends from older datasets or from selective readings that exclude certain categories. Some versions count only merchandise trade and drop services. Others pull from provincial summaries where dependency runs higher than the national average. The number also gets repeated in media without a year attached, which lets stale data travel as if it were current. Once a round number enters circulation, it moves faster than a correction.
Why 14 points matter in policy terms
When the gap between perception and reality is that wide, the debate shifts. A country where 85% of exports flow to one customer sounds captive. A country where 72% of exports go to that customer still has significant concentration risk, but the remaining 28% represents approximately $160 billion in annual trade with Europe, Asia, and other markets. That is enough scale to negotiate from. Overstating the dependency by nearly a fifth makes diversification sound impossible when it is merely difficult.
The verified figure is 71.7%. The source is Statistics Canada, updated through the end of 2025. If a number higher than that appears in something you are reading, the writer did not check.
Sources
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